Foord Equity comment - Sep 18 - Fund Manager Comment13 Dec 2018
- Global developed markets (+0.4% in US dollars) continued their rise despite monetary policy tightening, higher oil prices and trade war escalations - emerging markets (-0.5% in US dollars) were mixed, with oil exporters Russia (+9.8%) and Brazil (+7.0%) outperforming oil importers India (-9.1%) and China (-1.4%)
- The FTSE/JSE Capped All Share Index (-3.9%) was driven lower by industrials (-7.7%) and financials (-2.0%) on negative domestic economic news - resources (+1.0%) gained marginally as industrial metals and platinum prices rose
- Portfolio rand hedges British American Tobacco (-6.3%), Richemont (-8.8%) and Naspers (-6.4%) detracted mostly on rand strength - but pharmaceutical company Aspen (-41.9%) was harshly punished on poor management disclosures and earnings rising below market expectations
- Financials (-2.0%) lagged and RMB Holdings (-6.1%) retraced some of August's outperformance - local banks reacted negatively to weaker business confidence and confirmation of continued GDP contraction
- SA Industrials (-7.7%) posted their worst monthly return since 2009 with domestic economic weakness weighing heavily on the consumer sector - but investments in quality mid-caps Italtile (+3.7%), Kap International (+6.6) and Invicta (+3.7%) provided some offset
- The sizeable defensive cash position nearing 10% of fund was positive for absolute and relative returns - the position also provides valuable liquidity with which the managers can exploit increased market volatility
- The rand (+3.9%) recovered some of its recent losses as the year's emerging markets rout took a breather - but the unfolding global macro environment and weak SA economic fundamentals continues to leave the currency vulnerable