Fund review
The size of the Stanlib Bond Fund at the end of the first quarter was R3.5bn, having decreased by R100m from the previous quarter. After reducing duration by 0.7 years below the benchmark during the fourth quarter of 2017 in response to the deteriorating bond outlook, duration was increased to 0.3 years longer than that of the ALBI following a positive change in sentiment post the elective conference of the ruling party. The long duration was achieved by building an overweight position in the 12+ sector of the yield curve which benefited the Fund as yields declined substantially.

Looking Ahead
The bond markets continued on its recovery path which started in December post the elective conference of the ruling party, which saw the currency strengthening as the new leadership is seen as market friendly. The All Bond Index returned 8.06% during the quarter, taking the 12 month return to print 16.23%. The 10 year maturity bond yield opened the quarter at 8.59% and ended the quarter at 7.98%. The variation of returns in the All Bond Index was largely explained by the performance of the long end of the yield curve with the 12+ sector, which is 60% of the index, returning 10.03% in response to an aggressive flattening of the yield curve. The quarter’s performance was driven by a lot of positive sentiment on South Africa specific issues, which saw foreign investors in the bond market continue to increase their holdings by R18 billion over the quarter. The decline in yield occurred despite a selloff in US treasuries which came as a result of a strong economy and wage inflation showing signs of increasing, which led to the Fed increasing short term interest rates by 25 basis points. The disconnect with the US treasuries is a clear reflection of how intense the effect of the euphoric sentiment had on South African markets. The credit default swap spread for the country also declined and touched a low of 140 basis points before tracking back to 160 basis points which is where it started the quarter. Further adding to positives, the budget statement in February was positive for the market as national treasury revised the debt trajectory to be much lower than what was forecast in the medium term budget statement. The revisions led to rating agency Moody’s not downgrading the country to below investment grade, which would have led to the country’s local currency debt being kicked out of the WGBI (World Government Bond Index). Instead, they changed the outlook from negative to stable, which now buys the country more time to turn the economy around due to the positive credibility the new leaders have.

The South African Reserve bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the March MPC meeting taking the repo rate to 6.5% in response to a benign inflation environment which saw inflation printing 4.0%, a number last seen in the first quarter of 2015.