STANLIB Prudential Bond Fund has closed and merged into STANLIB Bond Fund.

Fund review

The size of the STANLIB Bond Fund decreased by R300 million to R3.3 billion during the first quarter of 2019. At the beginning of the quarter, the fund had an overweight duration position and a sizeable overweight position in the 12+ area of the yield curve. Bond markets faced continued headwinds as the market priced in a significant Eskom bail-out and an increase in bond issuance from the Budget Speech as a result. This called for positions to be unwound going into key risk events, to close the quarter with a cautious/neutral position. The duration of the fund and the yield curve position were gradually reduced to be in line with the benchmark. The fund retained its overweight position in credit although that was slightly smaller than in the previous quarter.

Market overview

In the first quarter of 2019 there were a number of key risk events, starting with the Budget speech when the Finance Minister presented worsening fiscal projections. The budget showed debt to GDP figures exceeding 60% in the medium term along with R69 billion support needed for financially distressed Eskom over the next three years. The cash injection came at a much-needed time, as Eskom was allocated a lower tariff increase by NERSA than it applied for and the power utility was also reaching a point where it was unable to service its debt. This, with loadshedding, contributed to weaker business confidence. Credit rating agency Moody’s gave SA a rating reprieve by deciding not to issue a sovereign credit review on 29 March, but later issued a credit opinion affirming SA’s credit rating at Baa3 with a stable outlook. The credit opinion mostly highlighted positives, causing markets to rally, with the SA benchmark bond yield reaching a low of 8.42% for the quarter and the rand strengthening to R14.15/$ from a low of R14.60/$. The five-year credit default swap (CDS) spread consolidated to 185bps, down from 227bps at the beginning of Q1 2019, but still higher than the low of 140bps seen in 2018. Despite volatility, the bond market managed to produce a return of 3.76% during Q1 2019.

At its December meeting, the US Fed emphasised slowing global growth and benign inflation, which encouraged it to pause from hiking interest rates and announce an early end to its balance sheet reduction in Q3 2019. The Fed’s changed stance, along with other global central banks remaining accommodative, has rallied high-yield emerging markets. The US 10-year bond yield has since strengthened to 2.37% following a high of 2.75% earlier during the quarter. However this caused the US yield curve to invert, which raised concerns of a possible recession in future. In line with a benign global inflation outlook, inflation data in SA remained subdued, supporting the bond market.

Looking ahead

The market will be closely watching the national elections taking place on 8 May and the outcome may influence direction. The risk of an imminent sovereign downgrade may have subsided but it is not completely ruled out as Moody’s continues to monitor the turnaround in SA growth and fiscal metrics. Moreover, Moody’s rating review of the SA sovereign scheduled for November will consider the structural reforms undertaken at financially troubled state-owned companies such as Eskom. Inflation in SA is expected to remain stable inside the target band of 3-6% and the SARB is likely to keep rates on hold for the year.

The commentary gives the views of the portfolio manager at the time of writing. Any forecasts or commentary included in this document are not guaranteed to occur.

Fund review

The size of the Stanlib Bond Fund increased by R500m during the third quarter to R4bn. We started the quarter with a slight overweight duration position and a sizeable overweight position in the 12+ area of the yield curve. These positions were unwound during the quarter as bond markets continued to face headwinds and we resolved to assume a cautious position. The duration of the Fund was cut to be largely in line with the benchmark for most of the quarter, and the yield curve position was also aligned to the benchmark post the negative second quarter GDP print as we anticipated the possible announcements of increases in issuance would steepen the yield curve. The Fund retained its overweight in credit although slightly smaller than the previous quarter.

Market overview

Emerging market currencies and assets continued to sell off in the third quarter amid a stronger US dollar environment as trade and geopolitical tensions heightened, monetary conditions continued to tighten and global inflation expectations accelerated. Risk aversion due to US sanctions on Turkey and Russia and the debt crisis in Argentina contributed to the rand weakening by 3% against the US dollar, with bonds following suit as foreign investors sold R16bn of South African government bonds in the quarter. The US Fed raised interest rates by 25bps in September as widely expected, and indicated that they are planning on raising rates once more this year and three more times in 2019 as growth remains robust and inflation continues to increase.

Local GDP surprised by contracting again in the second quarter, tipping the economy into a technical recession and sparking fears of a possible ratings downgrade by Moody’s on the 12th of October. Longer dated bonds sold off as a result, as markets were pricing in a higher probability of an increase in government bond issuance as tax revenue was likely to come under pressure. The spread between the 30 year maturity bond and the 10 year maturity bond increased by 10 basis points to end the quarter at 93 basis points, reflecting these risks. Headline Inflation increased from 4.4% to 4.9% in August due to higher fuel prices and higher VAT but core inflation remains subdued as the economic activity remains subdued. The Reserve Bank as a result left interest rates unchanged leaving the markets pricing in higher probabilities of an interest rate hike at their November meeting should the current negative environment persist.

Looking ahead

The fourth quarter comes with a number of event risks with possible significant impact on returns. The three major rating agencies will give their rating updates on South Africa; with the Moody’s decision the most important one as a downgrade from them would result with major outflows due to South Africa being excluded from the World Government Bond Index. In September the government tabled measures to stimulate economic growth, details of which will be shared in the Medium Term Budget Policy Statement in late October. The stimulus package was well received by the markets and the details in the budget will be assessed for the impact on National Treasury’s debt consolidation plans. The Land Reform Committee is also expected to report back to parliament on its recommendations, which can have material impact on markets. Internationally, elections in Brazil in October and in the US in November will also be watched with keen interest as they can influence the risk environment.

The commentary gives the views of the portfolio manager at the time of writing. Any forecasts or commentary included in this document are not guaranteed to occur.